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Date: Wed, 21 Nov 2001 06:56:21 -0800 (PST)
From: tradersummary@syncrasy.com
To: vkamins@ect.enron.com
Subject: Syncrasy Daily Trader Summary for Wed, Nov 21, 2001
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[IMAGE]=09


[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, =
LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  H=
ouston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com          Sales:  713.228.4407   D=
evelopment Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  =
Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      =09  =09 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version=
 of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you woul=
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reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_trad=
ersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Wednesday, Nov 21, 2001 at =
07:45AM EST    Commentary last updated: Wednesday, Nov 21, 2001 at 09:21AM =
EST  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote     Congratu=
lations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 =
AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please vi=
sit: AMS  or Aquila    Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximu=
m Temperature'     Today: Wednesday, November 21, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:=
  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE=
][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 48 +1 ERCOT(SP)=
 64 +1 FRCC(SE) 75 +1 MAAC(NE) 46 +2 MAIN(CTR) 54 +3 MAPP(HP) 56 +4 NPCC(NE=
) 41 +1 SERC(SE) 60 +2 SPP(SP) 61 +2 WSCC(NW) 51 +2 WSCC(RK) 52 +3 WSCC(SW)=
 64 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE=
 SP SW Mean 45 48 40 46 43 57 57 60 Max 54 57 47 51 52 64 66 66 Min 39 41 3=
4 42 36 49 51 56 Range 15 16 13 9 16 15 15 10 StD-P 5.5 5.4 3.7 2.7 4.8 4.1=
 4.5 2.9 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Fore=
cast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 1-5 Discussion:   Battle deve=
lops between tropical ridge in the Atlantic and Arctic air flooding Canada.=
 The Atlantic ridge will prevail? for now.  A series of weather systems wil=
l move into the West Coast and head East through the Thanksgiving holiday w=
eekend. While the pattern will be more active than recent weeks, no one big=
 storm is likely to bring travel problems on a large scale. In addition, th=
ere is little additional cold air available to spin up a Winter Storm, so m=
ost precip will be in the form of light to moderate rain. Exceptions to thi=
s will be the mountains of the West where ski resort snows will fall. Also,=
 the far Northern reaches of the U.S. could see some light snows. Temperatu=
re departures are expected to go largely above normal again with the highes=
t numbers in the North, though not to the de! gree of earlier in the month.=
 Negative numbers though not significant are confined to the West where sto=
rms come in off the ocean and in the Southeast where this time of year is n=
ot cold anyway.    Tomorrow: Thursday, November 22, 2001   Syncrasy's Choic=
e:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMA=
GE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 51 NC ERCOT(S=
P) 71 +1 FRCC(SE) 77 NC MAAC(NE) 51 +1 MAIN(CTR) 50 +1 MAPP(HP) 47 +1 NPCC(=
NE) 46 +1 SERC(SE) 64 +1 SPP(SP) 58 +4 WSCC(NW) 47 NC WSCC(RK) 43 +2 WSCC(S=
W) 62 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK =
SE SP SW Mean 46 44 44 43 39 62 64 58 Max 56 54 54 50 50 69 72 64 Min 42 39=
 36 40 32 58 58 55 Range 14 15 18 10 18 11 14 9 StD-P 3.2 3.8 3.9 2.4 3.8 3=
.1 3.0 2.4 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Fo=
recast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 3: Friday, November 23, 2001=
   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [=
IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR=
(CTR) 55 +4 ERCOT(SP) 74 +4 FRCC(SE) 79 NC MAAC(NE) 54 +2 MAIN(CTR) 52 +5 M=
APP(HP) 46 +1 NPCC(NE) 46 +1 SERC(SE) 68 +5 SPP(SP) 59 +2 WSCC(NW) 44 -1 WS=
CC(RK) 40 -3 WSCC(SW) 59 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   =
Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 49 41 44 40 31 66 66 54 Max 51 46 50 45 40=
 69 72 59 Min 46 38 40 37 25 63 60 49 Range 5 8 10 8 15 6 12 10 StD-P 1.2 2=
.3 2.6 1.9 3.3 1.7 3.3 2.5 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See=
 Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 4: Saturday,=
 November 24, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix   =
 [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge=
)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 58 +7 ERCOT(SP) 74 +1 FRCC(SE) 80 NC MAAC(NE) 59 +3=
 MAIN(CTR) 51 +2 MAPP(HP) 42 NC NPCC(NE) 50 +5 SERC(SE) 69 +2 SPP(SP) 58 +1=
 WSCC(NW) 42 -1 WSCC(RK) 38 -1 WSCC(SW) 55 -1     Range Standard Deviation =
[IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 49 37 53 37 31 68 61 51 =
Max 51 42 55 42 39 71 69 55 Min 48 33 51 35 26 66 54 48 Range 3 9 4 7 13 5 =
15 7 StD-P 0.9 2.4 1.2 1.5 3.3 1.5 4.6 2.1 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here=
  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 5: S=
unday, November 25, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Mat=
rix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to e=
nlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 54 +2 ERCOT(SP) 74 +1 FRCC(SE) 79 -1 MAAC(NE)=
 59 +3 MAIN(CTR) 49 -1 MAPP(HP) 40 NC NPCC(NE) 52 +3 SERC(SE) 70 +2 SPP(SP)=
 60 +3 WSCC(NW) 40 -1 WSCC(RK) 36 +2 WSCC(SW) 55 NC     Range Standard Devi=
ation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 43 37 53 35 32 66 =
66 49 Max 47 41 55 40 39 72 72 56 Min 41 34 52 31 27 64 61 45 Range 6 7 3 9=
 12 8 11 11 StD-P 1.8 2.3 1.0 2.3 4.3 2.6 3.0 2.7 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Cli=
ck Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    =
Day 6-10 Discussion:  Models are going wild with a winter storm early in th=
e 6-10 day period. I suspect surface pressures are a little overdone given =
the upper level flow. However, the Gulf will be open and some significant m=
oisture and wind are possible. The storm track will be well North which con=
fines snow to the Northern U.S. Significant winter weather though from Wyom=
ing to Minnesota is possible. The large scale pattern ending November will =
be for a trough to sit in the Interior West while a strong ridge exists ove=
r the Southeast.  There is still plenty of arctic air available in Canada, =
but with the jet stream in a broad West to SW flow, no means of delivery ap=
pear available until at least December 1'st. In a general sense, I look for=
 temperatures to be below normal in the West with above normal in the South=
 and East. The North! is somewhat a question mark being closer to the arcti=
c air and could go either way. I'll lean to normal for now.  Day 6: Monday,=
 November 26, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix   =
 [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge=
)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 54 +2 ERCOT(SP) 72 +1 FRCC(SE) 79 NC MAAC(NE) 55 +1=
 MAIN(CTR) 49 +2 MAPP(HP) 37 NC NPCC(NE) 49 NC SERC(SE) 68 NC SPP(SP) 58 +3=
 WSCC(NW) 39 -3 WSCC(RK) 31 -1 WSCC(SW) 53 -3     Range Standard Deviation =
[IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 46 35 45 34 24 65 66 45 =
Max 48 42 51 39 33 70 72 53 Min 43 32 42 30 17 62 62 40 Range 5 10 9 9 16 8=
 10 13 StD-P 2.2 3.0 2.4 2.8 4.5 1.8 2.6 3.8 Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Click He=
re  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 7:=
 Tuesday, November 27, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility =
Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image t=
o enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 50 +2 ERCOT(SP) 65 +3 FRCC(SE) 78 +1 MAAC(=
NE) 57 +3 MAIN(CTR) 41 +1 MAPP(HP) 29 -2 NPCC(NE) 49 +2 SERC(SE) 65 +3 SPP(=
SP) 48 NC WSCC(NW) 40 -2 WSCC(RK) 30 -1 WSCC(SW) 53 -4     Range Standard D=
eviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 43 25 46 33 20 =
65 56 46 Max 47 31 52 40 32 67 62 52 Min 39 20 41 28 13 62 51 40 Range 8 11=
 11 12 19 5 11 12 StD-P 2.0 3.6 4.4 3.8 5.5 1.4 3.6 4.6 Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7=
 7 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matr=
ix   Day 8: Wednesday, November 28, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. =
  Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Cli=
ck on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 34 +1 ERCOT(SP) 58 +6 FRCC(SE=
) 71 +1 MAAC(NE) 53 +13 MAIN(CTR) 27 -2 MAPP(HP) 21 +2 NPCC(NE) 49 +8 SERC(=
SE) 61 +11 SPP(SP) 39 +2 WSCC(NW) 31 +4 WSCC(RK) 25 +6 WSCC(SW) 48 +6     R=
ange Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean =
32 24 47 34 26 63 53 49 Max 36 32 50 41 36 65 59 57 Min 27 17 44 31 21 62 4=
6 45 Range 9 15 6 10 15 3 13 12 StD-P 3.3 3.7 2.1 3.1 3.4 0.8 2.6 2.3 Count=
 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the V=
olatility Matrix   Day 9: Thursday, November 29, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice: =
 Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE]=
[IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 30 NC ERCOT(SP) =
64 +3 FRCC(SE) 70 -3 MAAC(NE) 34 NC MAIN(CTR) 33 +6 MAPP(HP) 35 +15 NPCC(NE=
) 33 -1 SERC(SE) 58 +3 SPP(SP) 50 +9 WSCC(NW) 31 +5 WSCC(RK) 36 +20 WSCC(SW=
) 49 +11     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK =
SE SP SW Mean 31 29 40 33 31 60 57 47 Max 33 38 45 35 38 63 61 49 Min 26 20=
 33 31 24 56 51 44 Range 7 18 12 4 14 7 10 5 StD-P 2.3 6.4 4.5 1.4 5.5 1.6 =
3.9 2.0 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used=
 Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 10: Friday, November 30, 2001   Syncras=
y's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMA=
GE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 41 +=
6 ERCOT(SP) 70 +13 FRCC(SE) 69 -3 MAAC(NE) 33 -5 MAIN(CTR) 49 +20 MAPP(HP) =
46 +27 NPCC(NE) 27 -3 SERC(SE) 58 -6 SPP(SP) 63 +24 WSCC(NW) 33 +2 WSCC(RK)=
 32 +17 WSCC(SW) 48 +7     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg C=
T HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 30 32 31 26 57 61 42 Max 47 43 37 33 34 60 6=
9 48 Min 27 21 28 30 17 53 49 33 Range 20 22 9 3 17 7 20 15 StD-P 7.4 8.4 2=
.8 1.2 6.4 1.9 6.5 5.3 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here  to See Each Weathe=
r Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Trader Summary is designed =
around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and Data=
Wall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www=
.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]  =09
=09=09=09
